2014-03-22

Observations on Feb. 2014 Diamond Comics Chart - Launches and Predictions

Taking out one-shots and annuals, there were 32 new series on Diamond's February comics chart. Let's take out our crystal ball and see where these numbers are likely to be headed in the next few months, if past is indeed prologue (hint, the answer in almost all cases is down. Nostradamus doesn't predict peace and picnics).

WOLVERINE #1 (MAR) - 88923 copies
FANTASTIC FOUR #1 (MAR) - 65775 copies
PUNISHER #1 (MAR) - 54558 copies
MS MARVEL #1 (MAR) - 50286 copies
X-FORCE #1 (MAR) - 47427 copies
NEW WARRIORS #1 (MAR) - 45765 copies
LOKI AGENT OF ASGARD #1 (MAR) - 41921 copies
SHE-HULK #1 (MAR) - 41894 copies
WINTER SOLDIER BITTER MARCH #1 (MAR) - 31137 copies

Marvel's has all the top launches of the month, sometimes re-starting books which only ended a few weeks before. And thanks to their double-shipping, we already know the second issues of WOLVERINE and PUNISHER see drops of over 40%. Expect at least 30% for the rest next month, except maybe WINTER SOLDIER which is a mini-series.  Unless there's a breakout hit in the group, all these should lose at least half these sales by #5.

TUROK DINOSAUR HUNTER #1 (DE) - 30722 copies
TOMB RAIDER #1 (DAR) - 18486 copies

Two fairly high profile launches of books which were at one time pretty successful for other publishers. TUROK will almost certainly see a big drop on #2, maybe over 50%.  TOMB RAIDER's drop will be smaller, maybe 20-30%. It'll be interesting to see which one is higher with #2. Both should drift down to around 10k by #5. Dynamite has some more Gold Key launches coming up, I expect them to follow a similar trend to the Valiant launch of two years ago*, progressively lower launches and a steady slide with a few temporary upward blips.

*(for those who don't know, the Valiant/Acclaim line of the 1990s was made of old Gold Key revamps and original creations. The Gold Key titles are now owned by a company that licenses them out, previously to Dark Horse, now to Dynamite, while the original 1990s creations are owned by a new company using the Valiant name).

REVENGE #1 (IMA) - 17362 copies
FUSE #1 (IMA) - 15957 copies
UNDERTOW #1 (IMA) - 14859 copies
APOCALYPSE AL #1 (IMA) - 14055 copies
MERCENARY SEA #1 (IMA) - 10728 copies
ONE HIT WONDER #1 (IMA) - 9719 copies

These are all middle tier Image launches. Books where the creators with a good track record, currently or recently working on high profile Marvel books tend to launch higher, over 25k. Books by relative unknowns launch lower. These are books by people known for their work at DC, lower profile Marvel or previous Image books. I'd expect at least a 20-25% range drop for #2 on each, but wouldn't be too surprised if at least one of them quickly stabilizes and even has a small up-tick within a few issues. If I were betting I'd say FUSE will be the best selling of those that reach #5.

DEXTER DOWN UNDER #1 (MAR) - 13203 copies

Marvel's second in a series of stories based on the DEXTER novels, not the TV show, by the creator of the character. Pretty much continues the trend from the first series, which ended at 13439. Probably won't see any huge drops, but still likely below 10k by the last issue.

ROYALS MASTERS OF WAR #1 (DC) - 12755 copies

DC's only debut this month is a Vertigo mini-series.  Almost surely under 10k by #2 and down in the 7k neighbourhood by the final issue.

BUNKER #1 (ONI) - 10378 copies
KING CONAN CONQUEROR #1 (DAR) - 9646 copies
LOBSTER JOHNSON GET LOBSTER #1 (DAR) - 8266 copies
GFT WONDERLAND CLASH OF QUEENS #1 (ZEN) - 6791 copies
GFT ASCENSION #1 (ZEN) - 5327 copies
TERMINATOR ENEMY OF MY ENEMY #1 (DAR) - 6068 copies
WHITE SUITS #1 (DAR) - 5039 copies
PARIAH #1 (DAR) - 4377 copies
GRAVEL COMBAT MAGICIAN #1 (AVA) - 4287 copies

HELLBOY spin-offs like LOBSTER JOHNSON and CONAN minis tend to maintain sales pretty well, they're known quantities at this point, so those will get only modest drop-offs as they go.  I'd expect a bit higher drops for the rest, maybe 15-20%, and most would probably fall off the charts within a few issues of Diamond hadn't expanded it to the Top 400. It's harder to guess likely drops in this ranger since there's less history to work with.

VANDROID #1 (DAR) - 4229 copies
CITY THE MIND IN THE MACHINE #1 (IDW) - 4224 copies
LOKI RAGNAROK & ROLL #1 (BOO) - 4139 copies
DEVILS HOPYARD #1 (ARD) - 2264 copies

These wouldn't have made the chart before that expansion, and are all pretty likely to drop off even the expanded chart within one or two issues.



For the record, here are the one shots and annuals:

BATMAN JOKERS DAUGHTER #1 (DC) - 51066 copies
Pretty good numbers, won't be surprised to see a JOKER'S DAUGHTER series or mini-series within the next year.

IRON MAN ANNUAL #1 (MAR) - 26047 copies
SUPERIOR CARNAGE ANNUAL #1 (MAR) - 25806 copies
Typical for annuals to come out in this range, about 80% to 90% of the nearest regular issue (which was a few months ago for the CARNAGE book).

MLP FRIENDSHIP IS MAGIC 100 PENNY PRESS #1 (IDW) - 21957 copies
Most major publishers are doing these $1 reprints of the first issues of their most popular books, so I imagine they're driving some sales, maybe more likely to the collections and digital rather than single issues, since they don't make the second or third issues any easier to find in print.

SUPERMAN LOIS LANE #1 (DC) - 21550 copies
At least 60% less likely to see a LOIS LANE series than a JOKER'S DAUGHTER one.

DC COMICS PRESENTS HARLEY QUINN #1 (DC) - 15587 copies
This is by far the most successful of this series of $8 100-page not-quite-tradepaperback reprint collections that DC has done. It includes the 1999 BATMAN/HARLEY QUINN one-shot that introduced the character created for the animated series to the mainstream DC universe, plus several other early stories. If it was classified on the Graphic Novel chart, where a similar STAR LORD book from Marvel was put, it would have been #1 by a better than 3:1 margin.

X-FILES CONSPIRACY TMNT #1 (IDW) - 13104 copies
X-FILES CONSPIRACY TRANSFORMERS #1 (IDW) - 11897 copies
I guess the idea of crossing over various licensed properties appeals to someone. Pretty solid sales compared to the ongoing titles of those properties.

REVOLUTIONARY WAR DEATHS HEAD II #1 (MAR) - 11310 copies
REVOLUTIONARY WAR SUPERSOLDIERS #1 (MAR) - 10310 copies
Hey, remember Marvel UK? Yeah, me neither.

GFT ROBYN HOOD AGE OF DARKNESS (ZEN) - 6388 copies
Zenescope books generally hang around this level, so I guess that works for them.

RED SONJA BERSERKER ONE SHOT (DE) - 5810 copies
About half the regular RED SONJA book, which seems week. The lowest of three RED SONJA comics this month, seems like overkill for the character.

ROBOCOP BETA ONE SHOT (BOO) - 4263 copies
ROBOCOP TO LIVE AND DIE IN DETROIT ONE SHOT (BOO) - 4164 copies
ROBOCOP MEMENTO MORI ONE SHOT (BOO) - 4012 copies
ROBOCOP HOMINEM EX MACHINA ONE SHOT (BOO) - 3979 copies
Kids love the Rowboat Cop. Just not that many of them.

RED SONJA DOLLAR BOOK #1 (DE) - 3906 copies
1 FOR $1 MASS EFFECT FOUNDATION #1 (DAR) - 3012 copies
Two more $1 reprints. You know, for kids.

VILLAINS MONTH 3D MOTION COMPLETE SET (DC) - 2261 copies
A set of reprints of DC's sold-out 3-D cover comics from September for $200. Sold more than I'd have guessed. It's the top book of the month in dollar terms.

NANCY A DRAGON IN HELL ONE SHOT (AMI) - 1962 copies
I'm not quite sure what this is. I want it to be Ernie Bushmiller's Nancy meeting Smaug, but apparently it's something else.

SAMURAI JACK SPECIAL DIRECTORS CUT (IDW) - 1756 copies
It'll be good to see the original director's vision restored. Hey, who's your favourite comic book director?

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